Oscars 2026 Predictions: Moyens I/O’s Early Picks

The envelope felt heavier than it should. A bead of sweat trickled down my temple as I realized my meticulously researched predictions were about to be judged by millions. 2025—what a year for cinema, right? Now, with the 98th Academy Awards looming on March 16, 2026, let’s cut through the noise and get to what you’re really here for: Moyens I/O’s fearless forecasts.

Best Picture

The water cooler buzz is deafening. Everyone has an opinion. Consider this: the Academy often rewards films that resonate on multiple levels, not just artistic merit. Which brings us to…

• Sinners (WINNER)
• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Frankenstein
• Bugonia
• The Secret Agent
• Train Dreams
• F1

Sinners. Ryan Coogler didn’t just direct a film; he conducted an experience. Its score, cinematography, and overall direction elevate it. Its competitors? Formidable. But Sinners feels different. It’s a cultural tidal wave.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Remember that scene in One Battle After Another where DiCaprio’s character breaks down? Gut-wrenching. The Best Actor category always feels deeply personal, doesn’t it? It’s about raw human emotion resonating with the audience.

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (WINNER)
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jordan’s intensity in Sinners? Undeniable. Chalamet’s subtlety in Marty Supreme? Masterful. But DiCaprio… he didn’t just act; he inhabited a soul. His performance felt like a raw nerve exposed. A slight edge, perhaps, but an edge nonetheless.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Buckley’s name is on everyone’s lips. It’s that sense of ‘finally!’ Her versatility has been evident for years, but Hamnet felt like the role she was born to play. Does the Academy agree?

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (WINNER)
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone, Bugonia

Stone in Bugonia was reliably brilliant. Hudson surprised everyone with her bold musical turn. But Buckley’s portrayal… it wasn’t just acting; it felt like channeling. Her performance transcended mere skill. It was, for me, a revelation.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

That moment Elordi appears on screen in Frankenstein – transformative. Supporting roles often steal the show. Think Pesci in Goodfellas. Ledger in The Dark Knight. It’s about making an unforgettable impact with limited screen time.

• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
• Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (WINNER)
• Delroy Lindo, Sinners
• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Lindo delivered gravitas in Sinners; Penn, intensity in One Battle After Another. Yet Elordi? His portrayal of the monster in Frankenstein was a high-wire act of physicality and pathos. He deserves recognition for a daring role.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Madigan’s transformation is a masterclass. These roles need to be noticed, not just seen. It’s about creating a character so distinct that they linger long after the credits roll.

• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
• Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
• Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan, Weapons (WINNER)
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Fanning and Taylor delivered subtle, nuanced work. But Madigan? She went for broke. That level of commitment, that willingness to embrace the unsettling, is what defines awards-worthy work.

Best Direction

Great direction does not scream; it whispers. It elevates the material without overshadowing it. It’s the conductor leading the orchestra. It’s about vision, focus, and control.

• Ryan Coogler, Sinners (WINNER)
• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
• Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
• Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
• Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Sinners garnered 16 nominations. That’s impressive. Anderson, Zhao, and Trier are all auteurs. But Coogler didn’t just make a film; he built a world. That’s the mark of a visionary.

What qualities define “Best Direction” according to Academy voters?

Direction should create a cohesive atmosphere and elicit great acting performances while staying true to the story. The director is a storyteller, and Academy voters value their craft.

Best Animated Feature Film

Animation pushes boundaries. KPop Demon Hunters caught everyone by surprise. And audiences responded to it. It’s about innovative storytelling that connects with viewers in new ways.

• KPop Demon Hunters (WINNER)
• Elio
• Arco
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

Snubs happen. Demon Slayer and Chainsaw Man deserved nods. Yet KPop Demon Hunters resonated beyond expectations. It felt fresh. Its victory would signal a shift in animated storytelling.

How do animated films achieve mainstream recognition at the Oscars?

Animated films must overcome the perception of being “just for kids.” They achieve recognition by demonstrating artistic merit, complex themes, and broad appeal, often through innovative storytelling and visuals.

Best Casting

Casting is alchemy. Find the right performer to ignite a character. It’s not just filling roles; it’s creating a believable world. Great casting is like finding the missing piece of a puzzle.

• Nina Gold, Hamnet
• Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
• Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another
• Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
• Francine Maisler, Sinners (WINNER)

Best International Feature Film

Cinema knows no borders. This category celebrates storytelling from around the globe. It promotes cultural exchange and expands our understanding of the human experience.

• Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (WINNER)
• Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
• Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
• Oliver Laxe, Sirât
• Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Music (Original Score)

Music amplifies emotion. It underscores drama. It lingers in your mind long after the film ends. A great score becomes synonymous with the film itself.

• Ludwig Göransson — Sinners (WINNER)
• Daniel Pemberton — One Battle After Another
• Hildur Guðnadóttir — Hamnet
• Alexandre Desplat — Frankenstein
• Jerskin Fendrix — Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Editing shapes narrative. It controls pacing. It creates rhythm. Seamless editing is invisible. Great editing elevates the story.

• Stephen Mirrione, F1 (WINNER)
• Michael P. Shawver, Sinners
• Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
• Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme
• Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

Best Cinematography

Cinematography paints with light. It establishes mood. It evokes emotion. Breathtaking visuals linger in the memory.

• Autumn Durald Arkapaw — Sinners (WINNER)
• Robert Elswit — One Battle After Another
• Adolpho Veloso — Train Dreams
• Darius Khondji — Marty Supreme
• Dan Laustsen — Frankenstein

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Adaptation requires reimagining. It translates source material into a cinematic language. Great adaptation honors the original while forging a new identity.

• Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell — Hamnet (WINNER)
• Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
• Guillermo del Toro — Frankenstein
• Clint Bentley — Train Dreams
• Luca Guadagnino — Bugonia

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Originality sparks imagination. Great screenplays explore universal themes through unique voices. Fresh stories challenge our assumptions and expand our perspectives.

• Ryan Coogler — Sinners (WINNER)
• Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme
• Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Robert Kaplow – Blue Moon
• Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident

What role do guilds like the WGA play in predicting the Oscars for writing categories?

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards are strong indicators. A WGA win significantly boosts a film’s chances at the Oscars, especially if the film is WGA-eligible.

Best Visual Effects

VFX should be seamless. They should enhance the story without distracting from it. Great visual effects blur the line between reality and imagination.

• David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould – Jurassic World: Rebirth
• Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindo,n and Daniel Barrett – Avatar: Fire and Ash (WINNER)
• Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean – Sinners
• Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson- F1
• Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin – The Lost Bus

Best Sound

Sound design immerses the audience. It creates atmosphere. It intensifies emotion. Great sound should make you feel, not just hear.

• Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta – F1 (WINNER)
• Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker – Sinners
• Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern – Frankenstein
• José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosion, and Tony Villaflor – One Battle After Another
• Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas – Sirât

Best Original Song

A great song elevates a film. It captures the mood. It enhances themes. The best songs become inseparable from the film they accompany.

• Golden – KPop Demon Hunters
• Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless
• I Lied To You — Sinners (WINNER)
• Sweet Dreams Of Joy — Viva Verdi!
• Train Dreams — Train Dreams

Best Costume Design

Costumes define character. They establish period. They communicate social status. Great costume design helps tell a story.

• Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash (WINNER)
• Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet
• Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
• Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme
• Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and hairstyling transform actors. They create believable characters. The best work enhances performance and immerses the audience.

• Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey – Frankenstein (WINNER)
• Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry – Sinners
• Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu – Kokuho
• Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein – The Smashing Machine
• Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg – The Ugly Stepsister

Best Production Design

Production design builds worlds. It establishes atmosphere. It immerses the audience in the story. From grand sets to intricate details, this category rewards total vision.

• Frankenstein (WINNER)
• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme

Best Documentary Feature Film

Documentaries reveal truths. They illuminate hidden stories. They inspire change. The best documentaries expand our understanding of the world.

• Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen, Come See Me in the Good Light (WINNER)
• Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni, Cutting Through Rocks
• Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman, The Alabama Solution
• Nominees to be determined, Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee, The Perfect Neighbor

Best Live Action Short Film

Short films distill storytelling to its essence. They showcase emerging talent. They tackle complex themes with efficiency and artistry.

• Butcher’s Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy (WINNER)
• The Singers
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Best Animated Short Film

Animation unlocks boundless creativity. These films explore complex emotions through innovative visuals. They can tell powerful stories in just a few minutes.

• The Girl Who Cried Pearls (WINNER)
• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Three Sisters
• Retirement Plan

Best Documentary Short Film

These films capture critical moments. They provide intimate glimpses into compelling subjects. The best shine a light on overlooked stories and invite reflection.

• All the Empty Rooms (WINNER)
• Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: “Were and Are Gone
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

So there you have it. My predictions, laid bare. The Academy rarely aligns perfectly with popular opinion, but that’s what makes the awards so hotly debated. After all this speculation, which upsets are you secretly hoping for?