You glance at a headline and your brain tightens. I felt that same jolt when I read that an asteroid with a measurable chance of hitting Earth is now the spine of a bestselling author’s new novel. The book’s movie rights just sold and suddenly a speculative scenario is moving off the page and into Hollywood.
On the Deadline feed I first saw TriStar acquired the film rights to Ben Mezrich’s new book.
I’ve followed Mezrich’s trajectory for years. He made a career turning true stories into blockbuster scripts—The Accidental Billionaires became David Fincher’s The Social Network, Bringing Down the House became 21, and The Antisocial Network fed into Dumb Money. Now Mezrich has written The Last Orbit, a speculative novel due early 2027, and TriStar has already attached director Matt Shakman with a screenplay by Josh Friedman—names that signal serious studio intent.
The news landed like a stone in a pond.
Deadline reported the deal and io9/Gizmodo, which tracks the real asteroid behind the book, has been the go-to source for the science side. For context: adaptations move at wildly different speeds. Project Hail Mary took roughly six years from publication to screen. Expect this one to take time, but studio momentum is clear.
Who is directing the movie adaptation of The Last Orbit?
TriStar tapped Matt Shakman, fresh off steering The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and a screenplay is set to come from Josh Friedman (Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes). That director/screenwriter pairing puts the project in experienced hands—studio voices who have handled both spectacle and character-driven science fiction.
On my science feed this morning, io9 flagged a 4% impact probability for 2024 YR4 in 2032.
You’ve probably seen headlines that sound both alarming and oddly clinical. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is real, tracked by observatories and summarized by reporters at Gizmodo and io9. Their coverage notes a 4% chance of impact—small in common parlance, large in planetary-defense terms.
Here’s what matters: NASA’s planetary defense teams, JPL data, and international partners like ESA treat those probabilities seriously. Options on the table in fiction and real assessments include kinetic impactors, gravity tractors, and, in extreme scenarios, nuclear deflection—each with tradeoffs in timing, risk, and international coordination. Mezrich’s novel imagines the human side of those decisions, not just the hardware.
Is asteroid 2024 YR4 going to hit Earth?
No one can say with absolute certainty today. The current published probability sits at about 4% for a possible encounter in 2032, according to Gizmodo’s reporting on observatory data. That number can shift—improved tracking, additional observations, and orbit refinement often raise or lower risk over time. NASA and partner agencies will keep refining the orbit until the window closes or the threat is removed.
Mezrich uses that statistical uncertainty as a narrative engine. The premise sits like a fuse on a calendar.
At the edges of entertainment and science, this project stitches familiar brands together.
I point this out because names matter: Ben Mezrich brings a proven pathway to film; TriStar brings studio muscle; Shakman and Friedman bring recent blockbuster and franchise experience; io9 and Gizmodo supply the scientific reporting that grounds the fiction. Throw in references to Fincher-era prestige and the commercial DNA of Project Hail Mary and you have a package designed to attract both streaming bidders and theatrical windows.
Expect marketing to lean hard on the real asteroid story—Deadline coverage, Gizmodo threads, and social discussion about planetary defense will feed coverage. The conversation will live at the junction of science feeds, entertainment trades, and pop-culture think pieces.
Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who.
I’ll watch the tracking data and studio notices so you don’t miss the next chapter—movie greenlight, casting announcements, and any shift in the asteroid’s odds—and you’ll probably want to watch them too; who gets the science right, and who turns it into spectacle, will shape how we talk about existential risk for years to come?