Over the weekend, former President Donald Trump made headlines after claiming the U.S. had taken Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro hostage. This bold statement raised eyebrows globally, leaving many to wonder where the former president might set his sights next. If you’re in places like Greenland or Panama, it’s understandable that you’re feeling a bit uneasy. Betting markets reflect this tension, with odds for potential U.S. invasions rising significantly.
Interestingly, currently, the odds of Trump attempting to “reclaim the Panama Canal” before his potential term concludes in January 2029 stand at 36% on Kalshi. This figure has jumped from 28.8% as of January 2, shortly before the Maduro situation escalated. The U.S. had originally controlled the Panama Canal when it was constructed over a century ago but ceded authority in the 1970s.
Trump has consistently expressed an interest in regaining control, arguing that the canal rightfully belongs to the United States. He often references rising Chinese influence in the region as a reason for reasserting U.S. presence.
But it doesn’t stop with Panama. As reported by CNBC, the likelihood of the U.S. taking control of “any part of Greenland” has climbed to 38% as of Tuesday, up from 30% earlier in January. This figure hit a recent peak of 46.6% on January 4, the day after Maduro’s kidnapping.
Trump seems particularly fixated on Greenland, which is under Danish sovereignty. Denmark’s leadership has indicated a clear unwillingness to entertain the idea of relinquishing control. Standing by its position, the White House reiterated to Reuters that discussing options for “acquisition” remains on the table.
“Acquiring Greenland is a national security priority for the U.S.,” the White House stated. “The president and his team are exploring various routes for this important foreign policy goal, including the potential involvement of the U.S. military.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed concern about Trump’s aggressive stance, noting that threats against Greenland could jeopardize the NATO alliance. “If the United States were to attack another NATO country, everything would change,” she told Danish reporters following the escalation in rhetoric.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Trump’s ultimate intention is to purchase Greenland, positioning threats of invasion as merely a pressure tactic. Interestingly, some Democratic lawmakers have pointed out that defense officials previously claimed no plans for regime change in Venezuela existed prior to Trump’s actions regarding Maduro.
Beyond foreign territories, Trump’s remarks have also stirred tensions with Canada, traditionally the U.S.’s most loyal ally. His tariffs and aggressive trade policies have fueled a wave of discontent, leading to a significant downturn in U.S. exports to Canada. For example, from March to July, there was a staggering 91% drop in U.S. wine exports, according to Wine Enthusiast. Brands like Jim Beam are feeling the pinch, halting production due to declining sales as Canadian consumers shift towards domestic options.
If you’re tempted to place bets on whether Trump will target Greenland or Panama—or another country entirely—be sure to read the fine details. There’s been unrest among bettors on Polymarket regarding payouts for a supposed invasion of Venezuela, according to MarketWatch.
“This market concerns U.S. military actions aimed at establishing control,” the company clarified. “Trump’s statement about ‘running’ Venezuela, alongside talks with its government, does not constitute an invasion on its own.”
Moreover, if you consider betting, keep in mind that you might be competing against those with insider knowledge. Just before Maduro was abducted, someone turned a $30,000 bet on that event into a whopping $400,000 profit. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shared that he remains uncertain about whether insider trading in prediction markets is ethical.
“If you want to preserve market integrity, then no—you shouldn’t have insider trading. However, if it serves as a source of news, you absolutely want insider trading, as that provides true signals,” Armstrong noted.
Even if you feel confident in your prediction, multiple loopholes could prevent you from receiving due payouts, especially if insider trading occurs. And for Americans, there might be an unsettling irony, as the very people who reinstated this controversial leader now find themselves caught in his territorial ambitions.
What are the current odds of Trump invading Greenland?
The odds of Trump attempting to control Greenland sit at 38% as of Tuesday, reflecting a surge in U.S. interest in the territory amid rising geopolitical tensions.
How likely is it that Trump will take back the Panama Canal?
Currently, the probability of reclaiming the Panama Canal is estimated at 36%, which has increased from nearly 29% earlier this month, following the recent geopolitical developments.
What is Denmark’s stance on Greenland?
Denmark’s leadership has made it clear there’s no interest in relinquishing Greenland, and any aggressive moves by the U.S. could endanger NATO relations.
What impact have U.S. tariffs had on trade with Canada?
U.S. tariffs have led to a significant drop in exports to Canada, including a drastic 91% decrease in wine exports, compelling consumers to turn to local alternatives.
Why are prediction markets controversial?
Prediction markets can create conflicting interests, especially when insider knowledge skews the betting landscape. Recent cases have raised concerns about the fairness and integrity of these markets.
As these global stories unfold, keep an eye on the latest developments. What are your thoughts on these political maneuvers? Share your opinions in the comments below!