As we move into 2026, the world’s largest CEOs are gearing up to invest even more in AI, despite admitting that many of their current projects aren’t delivering the promised returns. It’s a curious mix of hope and caution that’s becoming a staple in corporate boardrooms.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a new survey from advisory firm Teneo shows that 68% of these leaders plan to boost their AI spending next year. Surprisingly, less than half of their ongoing AI initiatives have yielded returns that overcome their initial costs. This survey focused on CEOs from public companies generating at least $1 billion annually and was conducted this fall.
Are We in an AI Bubble?
The timing of these findings couldn’t be more interesting, as concerns about an AI bubble grow. AI is slated to account for about 40% of U.S. GDP growth in 2025, claiming 80% of stock market gains. Yet, for many companies, especially those not primarily focused on AI, the gains still feel elusive.
The Circular Spending Dilemma
Wall Street analysts are pointing fingers at the circular nature of major AI investments. For instance, Nvidia recently announced a $100 million investment in OpenAI, which will, in turn, purchase Nvidia chips for new data centers planned in collaboration with Oracle. However, delays in Oracle’s data center projects have left many investors anxious, pushing potential payoffs further out on the horizon. Despite the financial gymnastics, companies insist that advanced AI models will lead to substantial productivity boosts and innovations, perhaps even breakthroughs in medicine.
Testing the Waters in Non-AI Sectors
Across various departments—from marketing to IT—non-AI companies are rolling out AI tools. Yet, even in these areas, the evidence of transformative operational change is scant. I recall a colleague who eagerly deployed an AI tool for customer service. While the tool looked promising on paper, the actual results fell flat, leaving the team frustrated and puzzled.
How Effective Are AI Pilot Programs?
Are AI pilot programs generating revenue?
Not particularly effectively, according to a report from MIT. Even with the rush to embrace AI, fewer than one in ten pilot programs manage to deliver significant revenue increases. This aligns with Teneo’s findings, highlighting that a staggering 95% of organizations see no significant financial return from their AI investments.
CEO Optimism Persists
Despite the rocky road, many CEOs are still riding the AI wave. A significant 84% of leaders from companies earning over $10 billion annually believe that realizing returns on AI investments will simply take more time—at least six months, in their views. There’s a shared belief that the tide will turn, just not quite yet.
What does the future hold for AI investments?
The future seems filled with possibility. With many major corporations betting on expanded AI capabilities, a critical question arises: will these investments eventually pay off, or are they merely a gamble? Only time will tell.
Why are CEOs optimistic about AI despite poor returns?
CEOs harbor a belief that AI will eventually transform their operations. This mindset might stem from the early days of tech revolutions, where initial skepticism gave way to major advancements. Can this mindset lead to success in the long run? It’s something we’ll all be watching closely.
Are smaller companies also investing in AI?
While the focus on big players grabs headlines, smaller companies are also making strides in AI adoption, albeit with less fanfare. They might be using AI differently, more focused on targeted solutions rather than sweeping strategies.
In a world increasingly influenced by technology, the journey of AI investment continues to unfold. Will we see the promised returns that top executives are counting on, or will the pitfalls of current deployments stifle innovation before it truly begins? Share your thoughts in the comments below!