The air crackled with anticipation the day the tariffs were announced. Whispers turned to shouts as the news spread: China, the world’s rare earth titan, had tightened its grip. Suddenly, the global tech industry felt the squeeze, a stark reminder of just how much power resided in one nation’s hands. Now, the Trump administration is betting big on a strategy to reshape that power, aiming for nothing less than a new era of AI dominance.
That strategy? “Pax Silica.” It’s a bold title, dripping with historical ambition, but what does it really mean for you and the future of technology?
The Trump administration is rapidly expanding an initiative to secure the global AI and tech supply chains.
Led by the U.S., six countries—Israel, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the United Kingdom—came together last month to form a coalition meant to safeguard the supply of silicon that is critical to most tech applications including AI. The effort is meant to span all levels of the supply chain, from critical minerals, energy and advanced manufacturing to semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics.
“It’s meant to be an operational document for a new economic security consensus,” undersecretary of economic affairs Jacob Helberg told Reuters on Sunday.
“We encourage efforts to partner on strategic stacks of the global technology supply chain, including, but not limited to, software applications and platforms, frontier foundation models, information connectivity and network infrastructure, compute and semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, transportation logistics, minerals refining and processing, and energy,” read a declaration signed by member countries.
Although there are only seven countries in total that have signed on to the declaration, Helberg signaled that both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will be joining the framework this coming week. The Trump administration has also engaged in discussions over the initiative with the European Union, Canada, and Taiwan.
The program is called Pax Silica, modeled after Pax Romana, Latin for Roman Peace. “Silica” is related to “Silicon” in English, but that part is not Latin. The term describes a two-century-long period of relative political stability and economic prosperity in Ancient Rome as the empire, led by tyrannical emperors, doubled in size through notable bloody conquests, going on to eventually include a quarter of the world’s population at the time.
At the heart of this Pax Silica initiative is worries over an AI supply chain dominated by China.
China controls roughly 90% of the world’s supply of rare earth, a group of elements that are for building the computer chips used in smartphones and AI systems.
Last year, China leveraged this power by clamping down on rare earths exports in response to Trump’s tariff measures against Beijing. The counter measures hit the global tech industry hard, and gave China’s Xi Jinping an upper hand in trade talks with Trump.
In response, the United States has led calls for a reduced dependence on Chinese critical minerals, something that treasury secretary Scott Bessent will also reportedly push for as he hosts top finance officials from the EU, Canada, Japan, the U.K., Australia, India, Mexico, and South Korea this week.
While holding a near monopoly on critical elements, China is also focused on rapidly expanding its overall global influence, particularly when it comes to key infrastructure, tech, and AI.
The effort started roughly a decade ago through the Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious infrastructure investment project meant to strengthen China’s trade ties and influence abroad. Last year, Chinese officials indicated a similar approach to artificial intelligence development as they called for the establishment of a global AI cooperation organization focused on open-source communities and joint research but centered in Shanghai, under Chinese terms and values.
“By aligning our economic security approaches, we can start to have cohesion to basically block China’s Belt and Road Initiative — which is really designed to magnify its export-led model — by denying China the ability to buy ports, major highways, transportation and logistics corridors,” Helberg told Politico last month.
But while beating China in the global AI race is the Trump administration’s primary goal, it’s not the only one.
State Department’s economic security strategy is based on “four pillars,” Helberg said in a press briefing following the Pax Silica summit: rebalancing trade, reindustrializing America, securing supply chains, and stabilizing conflict zones via economic solutions “from the sub-Saharan Africa to the Middle East.”
The last of these pillars makes the two latest alleged additions to the Pax Silica crew notable: Qatar and UAE, two of the most influential Arab nations. While the UAE normalized ties with Israel in 2020 under Trump’s Abraham Accords and the two now have a trade relationship, Israel’s offensive in Gaza has somewhat cooled these ties. And while Qatar is a key mediator in Israel-Hamas negotiations, it has no formal diplomatic ties with Israel and any cordial relations were put under further strain after Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha in September 2025.
The ‘Roman Peace’ Playbook for AI Dominance
Imagine a world where your smartphone, your car, even the AI systems promising to revolutionize healthcare are all dependent on a single source for their essential components. That’s the current reality, with China controlling roughly 90% of the world’s rare earth supply – the elements that power the chips inside these devices. The Trump administration sees this chokehold as a threat to national security and economic stability.
The name “Pax Silica” itself is a deliberate echo of “Pax Romana,” the Roman Peace. But Rome achieved its dominance through conquest, not collaboration. Is this a signal of intent, or simply a rhetorical flourish? Perhaps it’s both. Helberg has stated that the end goal is to block China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
How does China’s dominance of rare earth minerals affect global tech?
Last year provided a stark illustration. When China restricted rare earth exports in response to U.S. tariffs, the global tech industry felt the pain almost immediately. This wasn’t just about smartphones becoming more expensive; it was a wake-up call about the fragility of the entire tech ecosystem. China effectively used its control of the supply chain as a bargaining chip, gaining leverage in trade negotiations. It was a powerful demonstration of economic might, and the Trump administration is clearly determined to prevent it from happening again.
The Four Pillars of Economic Security
I recently spoke with an analyst who said, “This isn’t just about beating China.” He was right. While containing China’s influence is a major driver, the Trump administration’s strategy extends far beyond that single objective.
The State Department’s economic security strategy rests on four pillars: rebalancing trade, reindustrializing America, securing supply chains, and stabilizing conflict zones through economic solutions. These are lofty goals, but the inclusion of conflict zone stabilization offers a particularly intriguing insight into the administration’s broader vision. By addressing economic instability in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, the U.S. hopes to create more stable and reliable sources for critical resources, reducing dependence on any single nation. Think of it as diversifying a portfolio – spreading the risk to create a more secure foundation. This strategy casts a wide net, attempting to solve multiple problems simultaneously.
What role do Qatar and the UAE play in this strategy?
The potential addition of Qatar and the UAE to the Pax Silica framework underscores the complexities of this geopolitical chess game. Both nations wield considerable influence in the Middle East, but their relationships with Israel are, to put it mildly, complicated. While the UAE normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, recent events in Gaza have strained those relations. Qatar, a key mediator in Israeli-Hamas negotiations, has no formal diplomatic ties with Israel. Their inclusion suggests a willingness to set aside those tensions, at least for the moment, in pursuit of shared economic and security goals. Are these partnerships built on genuine alignment, or simply a marriage of convenience? Only time will tell.
Is Pax Silica Just a Pipe Dream?
The vision of a U.S.-led coalition securing the global AI supply chain is ambitious, to say the least. The challenges are immense: navigating complex geopolitical relationships, incentivizing investment in domestic manufacturing, and competing with China’s established dominance in the rare earth market. The entire project hinges on international cooperation. Can these nations truly align their interests and work together effectively? This is the linchpin upon which the entire strategy rests.
The stakes are undeniably high. Control of the AI supply chain is not just about economic power; it’s about shaping the future of technology, innovation, and global influence. If the Trump administration succeeds in its Pax Silica initiative, the world could look very different in the years to come. But what if it fails? What happens if China continues to consolidate its control over critical resources? What then?