You’re at the kitchen table, scissors in hand, and your phone lights up with a ChatGPT shopping guide suggesting the exact sweater you were about to buy. I paused, suddenly aware that someone — or something — had narrowed my choices for me. The relief felt oddly personal and a little unsettling.
I write about tech and shopping; you care about giving gifts that land. So let’s walk through what Adobe’s numbers and the recent behavior of AI chatbots mean for your holiday buys, with a clear sense of where decisions are being nudged and why that matters to you.
I watched a friend ask Claude for headphones and get a buy link in five minutes — here’s what the data says
Adobe’s forecast, drawn from more than 1 trillion visits tracked by Adobe Analytics, predicts U.S. online holiday sales from Nov. 1–Dec. 31 will hit $275.1 billion (≈€253.1 billion), a 6.7% increase year over year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to top $15 billion (≈€13.8 billion) in a single day.
Traffic coming to retail sites from AI platforms is forecast to jump about 130% year over year this season. Thanksgiving could see the biggest surge in AI referrals — Adobe expects a 159% rise — with Black Friday up 95% and Cyber Monday 88%.
That growth is unlikely to be evenly split. Adobe’s numbers don’t include traffic generated by AI assistants hosted inside retailer apps like Amazon’s Rufus or Walmart’s shopping tools, because those don’t create external referrals. In short: third-party chatbots are sending more people to stores, but retailer-owned agents are quietly steering buyers from inside.
Will AI pick better gifts than humans?
Some of the answer is behavioral. Adobe’s July survey of 5,000 consumers shows 77% of people who used AI for shopping felt more confident in their choices, and 69% said they were less likely to return purchases that AI helped them select. Previous Adobe research also suggested AI users add more items to carts and follow through with purchases more often.
At dawn on Cyber Monday my inbox filled with AI-generated deals — what the bots are doing now
Chatbots like ChatGPT and Claude are moving from research to recommendation to action. ChatGPT can assemble personalized shopping guides that match a budget and taste; Google’s Gemini can watch prices and alert you when something drops or returns to stock; some agents can even place orders for you.
That convenience is part of why shoppers are warming to these tools: they synthesize choices quickly, as Vivek Pandya of Adobe put it, and reduce friction. But not all commerce platforms welcome third-party agents. Amazon recently blocked Meta’s Muse assistant from making purchases on its site without permission, a reminder that control over checkout matters to retailers.
Think of AI as like a shortcut through a crowded mall — it gets you to the item faster, but it also reroutes foot traffic and changes who benefits from customer attention.
Can AI actually buy things for me?
Yes — sometimes. Some AI tools now support automated purchases, but access varies by site. Retailers with proprietary assistants (Rufus at Amazon, Walmart’s AI tools) tightly control purchase flows; third-party agents can be blocked or limited. That tug-of-war will shape whether AI becomes the final decision-maker or just a research assistant.
I asked ChatGPT for a gift for my niece and it gave three precise options — this is what that means for you
When a chatbot suggests a present, it’s doing two jobs: filtering choices and signaling confidence back to the giver. For retailers, that’s become a new source of referral traffic and, in some cases, revenue. For shoppers, it’s a shortcut to a thoughtful buy.
Brands are adapting—integrating shopping features, adding price-tracking and restock alerts, and experimenting with agents that nudge you toward in-stock items and bundles. But there are trade-offs: reliance on AI can concentrate attention on a smaller set of products, boost conversion rates, and change return patterns, while also raising questions about transparency and who owns the recommendation.
AI in shopping is acting less like a clerk and more like a secret librarian — it listens to hints, fetches a shortlist, and hands you the title you didn’t know you needed.
How will AI change returns and buyer confidence?
Early signals suggest AI reduces returns by improving fit between expectation and product: shoppers report feeling more confident and returning less. That matters because fewer returns lower operational costs and improve retailer margins — another reason merchants will invest in or resist different assistant models.
Practical takeaway: if you want your gift to feel thoughtfully chosen, let the AI do the heavy comparison work but add your human touch — a note, a personal wrap, or an explanation of why you picked it. That small authorship keeps the gift meaningful even when the first nudge came from code.
Adobe did not immediately respond to requests for comment, but the market reaction is already underway: more AI options, more retailer responses, and more shoppers leaning on agents.
So will you let a chatbot pick your next thoughtful gift — and if it does, who gets the credit for being thoughtful?